Monday, December 9, 2024
Saturday, December 7, 2024
Computer Intelligence
I have been making the same prediction for a couple of decades. We have seen big advances in computer intelligence, but not as quickly as I thought:
"Given current trends, it would seem pretty likely that within 10 years we could have robots that could perform just about any task you would want them to. They might not be affordable to the average person, but businesses could use them for things like mining, construction, etc. 10 years ago I was predicting that eventually robots would be able to build houses.
The technology is so close already. There have been some great advances in android type robots especially by the Japanese. They are already using robots to care for old people in nursing homes. (Something to look forward to?)
When this will happen is mostly a question of cost effectiveness. We all know that the cost of technology goes down over time.
Within 10 years it is likely that they could hold a conversation with you. Already there are robots have full facial expression.
This is probably true of your PC as well. Imagine a "conversation wizard" on your computer that asks "Where would you like to go today?" (Microsoft's old slogan.) What affect will this have on human interaction?
If you were to call up your bank, you might not know if you are talking to a real person.
Computer driven cars seem likely to me. There are already have cars that can parallel park themselves. I want one of those. :-)
We already have computer controlled airplanes that require no human intervention such as the Global Hawk. Newer commercial planes have an autopilot that if needed can completely take over and land the plane. Compared to driving a car, landing a plane is pretty mundane.
Consider the following: As computers get smarter, we will be gradually relinquishing more control to them. It will happen so slowly that we won't notice it. For example, maybe a computer would do all your investing. That seems realistic as computer controlled investing has happened on Wall Street for at least a decade.. I hope that somewhere along the way that we don't lose complete control. :-)"
"Given current trends, it would seem pretty likely that within 10 years we could have robots that could perform just about any task you would want them to. They might not be affordable to the average person, but businesses could use them for things like mining, construction, etc. 10 years ago I was predicting that eventually robots would be able to build houses.
The technology is so close already. There have been some great advances in android type robots especially by the Japanese. They are already using robots to care for old people in nursing homes. (Something to look forward to?)
When this will happen is mostly a question of cost effectiveness. We all know that the cost of technology goes down over time.
Within 10 years it is likely that they could hold a conversation with you. Already there are robots have full facial expression.
This is probably true of your PC as well. Imagine a "conversation wizard" on your computer that asks "Where would you like to go today?" (Microsoft's old slogan.) What affect will this have on human interaction?
If you were to call up your bank, you might not know if you are talking to a real person.
Computer driven cars seem likely to me. There are already have cars that can parallel park themselves. I want one of those. :-)
We already have computer controlled airplanes that require no human intervention such as the Global Hawk. Newer commercial planes have an autopilot that if needed can completely take over and land the plane. Compared to driving a car, landing a plane is pretty mundane.
Consider the following: As computers get smarter, we will be gradually relinquishing more control to them. It will happen so slowly that we won't notice it. For example, maybe a computer would do all your investing. That seems realistic as computer controlled investing has happened on Wall Street for at least a decade.. I hope that somewhere along the way that we don't lose complete control. :-)"
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